Recession or not

So the UK may not be about to enter a recession as manufacturing reports a bit of an uplift in January. A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth and should we be deemed to have entered one, there will be endless ill-informed blether from journalists and MPs alike about the end of the world as we know it, and demands that the Government must do something. Since we have just had a negative quarter, it all depends on the next two months. Growth of 0.1% or above, OK, minus 0.1% or more, the end of the world. Does it never occur to the wittering journalists, politicians, and economic commentators that the idea that you can measure a large modern economy to one decimal place of a percentage is completely risible, and that to then make such a fuss or not depending on whether that figure reaches or breaches an arbitrary technical measure is probably not a suitable pastime for a grown-up.

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